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The Military
Persepctive Through a series of emails Sam Gardiner Colonel, USAF (retired), describes how the Bush adminstration has been building up for war with Iran. The Small Strike. Over the past weekend, the Sunday Times of London carried an article quoting British officials and intelligence sources that the United States is drawing up plans for a"surgical strike" on a terrorist training camp inside Iran. According to the article such an attack would send a powerful message to the Iranians. Two days later, John Bolton, the former US Ambassador to the UN was quoted by the Telegraph as saying he supported such a strike to show "the Iranians we're not going to tolerate..." their training insurgents for fighting in Iraq. The whole small strike argument is very dangerous. It is primarily dangerous because it is a narcotic idea. It would be easy. It seems like a good first step. Embedded in the argument, however, is the assumption that Iran will get the message we want to send, will accept it, and will not have one of their own to return. I remember a wise diplomat once saying in the middle of a wargame when one of the senior players said something about using force to send a message to the bad guys. He said, "Your job is not to send messages; diplomats send messages." Beware of faulty assumptions in easy solutions. Afghanistan: The standard answer from military commanders in Afghanistan when asked about Iranian involvement there has been "not militarily significant." Yesterday, the US Assistant Secretary of State said Iran has been interfering in in a variety of ways and lending support for the Taliban. This is a relatively new line of argument. I would expect to see more. Senator McCain: On Monday Senator McCain got into the Iran argument. He said the Iranian government poses the gravest danger to US interests in the Middleast. He then went on to support the argument by picking up on the strategic communications themes of the White House. He said Iran is on the path toward acquiring a nuclear weapon, repeating the President's line as if there had never been a National Intelligence Estimate. Then he picked up on the Iran-training theme. He said that Iran is training people who are "going back into Iraq to lead these Jihadists." Neither of his arguments are supported by evidence, but they clearly show a lesson the Administration knows quite well. Officials can start a false or slightly true story which will be echoed from many sources. In a very short period, almost everyone has bought into the story. Yesterday I was reviewing the now public
documents provided to the military analysts who were being briefed
by the Pentagon. One of the techniques the Public Affairs people
for the Secretary of Defense used was to give the analysts news
clippings where the source of the story was probably someone in
the Pentagon. In other words, if we can get the New York times to
write about it, it must be true. Background: In early 2006 we saw extensive reporting by investigative journalists and the Iranian Government that the United States was sending troops inside Iran and supporting the operations of proxies there. During that time, I had some rather extensive contacts with House Members who were close to military and intelligence affairs. It was clear to me that the Congress had not approved the operations and that it was the Department of Defense operating under protect-the-troops authorizations.
The Clashes: From press reports, the covert
operations are already underway.
The Implications. What we're learning is
profound. For the Maliki Government that just sent a delegation to Iran to ask Iran to stop its meddling in Iraq, it has to be a profound embarrassment. Headline: Maliki Weakened: Not Told of US Operations Inside Iran.
The Strategic Communications Theme. On Thursday, General Patraeus was in London visiting the Prime Minister. After the meeting, the general characterized the Iranian involvement in Iraq as "very, very significant." This thrust certainly seems to have replaced the surge-progress story line. Also on Thursday, Secretary Rice made it a full house. The big five - President, Vice President, Secretary of Defense, Director of the CIA and Secretary of State - have now repudiated the National Intelligence Estimate on an Iranian nuclear weapons program. Rice was a little softer. She said, "One has to wonder..." None of the five has told us what they know that we don't. Keeping up the message, Admiral Mullen told a Jewish group on Thursday that Iran is "the very core" of the challenge we face in the Middle East. A new dimension emerged the end of last week. In an interview with the Washington Post, Admiral Mullen said Iran's involvement in Iraq is being "mirrored" in its support for the Taliban. While we have known of Iranian involvement in Afghanistan for a long time, most of the efforts seem to have been non-military, such as road building. Previously commanders there have been very muted about any military support. Obviously, we are seeing a White House orchestrated communication plan unfold, and we seem to be moving in the direction of making Iran the problem to be dealt with in the broader Middle East. The Carriers. I have mentioned it was important to watch the overlap of carrier groups in the Gulf. Gates publicly said having both the Truman and the Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf was a "reminder" to Iran. The overlap turned out to only be one day. It seems the Truman is steaming back to the States now. We still, however, do no know the location of the Nimitz. She made high profile visits to Hong Kong and Guam, and left Guam last weekend. There have been no public affairs releases since them, an unusual condition. The Evidence. We were told over last weekend that General Patraeus was working on a briefing to show the extent of Iran's involvement in Iraq and that we would see that information this week. In addition, CBS reported that the State Department was working on an "ultimatum" that would be given to Iran after the release of the information. Although the AP did have some photos of the materials that have been captured, the whole situation has morphed. An Iraqi delegation took the evidence to Iran on Thursday to confront the Iranians. One DOD spokesman went to far as to say the Iranian involvement in Iraq was an Iraqi problem. Obviously, given the President warning to Iran, the Administration does not share this view. Gates said having the Iraqis talk to the Iranians is ma very important "step." I think it will turn out to be a step. I expect we will see the evidence emerge next week and be back on the track of a final warning to Iran. Sam Gardiner Tehran announced this afternoon that the April 12th blast at a mosque in the southern city of Shiraz was a bombing. The Intelligence Minister said six individuals have been arrested. He went on to say, "This terrorist group had relations with Britain and the United States and these countries were notified about this matter by the foreign ministry." This is an escalation, separate from the truth.
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